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The latest on the Stock Market


 

March 5, 2011

Is Oil going up? Will the price affect the market? What is happening in Libya? What is happening in Saudi? When the market looks to politics, and not the fundamentals, it almost always corrects. We are due for a correction, and were already in the middle of this short pause. Furthermore, we have come a long way, without a real correction. The Trin peaked, but the PC index did not, and the VIX could have shown MORE fear. So, it seems best to raise cash.

That is the Stock Market Bull for Today.

Marxh 4, 2011

A poster on our message board, sexi, is the winner of the stock race for the week. Here is his portfolio.

First week stock race winner - sexi



March 2, 2011

According to an expert technical analyst, we are in this trading channel at the moment. The S&P did bounce off the 50 day MA with fear indices that point the way UP. Also, at the moment most bullish percent indexes are not trading above 80%. So, it is more likely that we will remain above the 50 day MA. However we will see the bottom of this channel sooner or later.
S&P trading channel



That is the Stock Market Bull for Today.


Feb 24, 2011

As you probably know, we added a message board. The Stock Market Bull Session. Politics is controlling the stock market. That is never a good sign. Oil moved to $100. Unrest has spread to most Middle Eastern countries. At some point this will be a buying opportunity. Given the general health of US companies, that should be sooner than later, maybe even today. However, a prolonged High Oil price will tax everyone. So we will have to see. Instead of Market Indexed  ETFs, I went to Oil and Gold.

That is the Stock  Market Bull for Today.

Feb 8, 2011

As you are about to see, I have been posting on Marketocracy, and philliesphans.com, and not here. The forum on Marketocracy is closing. So I am setting up a message board here. As far as the market goes, we are in a raging cyclical Bull. I doubt this is the end of the Secular bear, but time will tell. If you are not fully invested, you are missing out.

That is the Stock Market Bull for Today.

July 2, 2010

If you took the failure of the market to clear 1155 as a sign, then you have cash in hand. We should be within 10% of the bottom, and so I would average in over the next 6 to 8 weeks. Keep in mind that this will be another INTERIM bottom. Market ETFs are a safe way to go. IF you sit by your computer every day during market hours, you could wait. Most people do not do that. Another option is to put in discounted limit orders for the market ETFs.

We have been on our way to the 940 range for some time. right now the market is at 1020. In general, we have NOT gone to the predicted numbers on the high or low side and so, we could be VERY close to the interim bottom.

The TRIN is WAY up there, but the VIX has not yet peaked. You could get the VXX if you want to play the VIX with buy and sell limit orders. SUCH a HIGH TRIN (1.8 ) would tend to imply the move to 940 is pretty close at hand. ( a couple of weeks at most )

Looking at the MACRO picture, we are in a TWENTY year secular bear market, that began in 1999. It will end, more than likely with a PE of LESS than 10. ( you get that when there is disinterest in the market, when earnings are increasing ) WE are NO WHERE NEAR THAT YET.

There are TWO ways to make money in a BEAR market. You are a REALLY good stock picker, or you trade according to the short and long term moving averages. Buy and Hold does NOT work in a secular bear market.

http://www.multpl.com/

IF Bush had done the right thing, we would NOT have been running deficits in good times. NOW that rough times are here, there is reluctance to spend more. That is backwards thinking. In reality, we SHOULD be reluctant, but the best way to move around the money is to declare victory in Afghan, leave, for the most part, and take out insurgents as needed. We are spending $750 Billion a year on defense. it should be at least HALF that. That $350 Billion could be the difference between a LOOOONG recession and a shorter double dip, which I was expecting all along.

That is the STOCK MARKET BULL for Today.

June 18 2010

Remembering that this is a bear market, if we are UNABLE To get past the 50 day MA, 1140, then I would definitely trim.

In general, if you start feeling good about your gains, in a secular bear market, it is time to take profits. That usually signals the end of the bull run.

That is the Stock Market Bull for Today

June 12, 2010

Last Monday, the PC index peaked at 15. The Arms and Vix also peaked. The market HELD at 1040. It is time to BUY.

That is the Stock Market Bull for today

October 7, 2009

I added four stocks. NOV, DO, WLP, and UNH. All have low PEGs and low Price sales ratios. The first two are in energy. The second two are health insurers. This is an interesting category. I believe that healthy insurers are getting hit by the health care reform talk unfairly.

The UP trend remains your friend.

BTW, Bull stands for the following.

Main Entry: bull session
Function: noun
Etymology: 6bull
Date: 1919

: an informal discursive discussion

Overall we have been in a secular BEAR market since 2000 on the S&P 500, the broadest measure of the United States Stock Market. In such markets, you have to sell into strength, according to PEGs that have become too pricey much sooner then you might otherwise expect. In a Secular bull, generally growth will allow PEGs to remain within a buy range for a long period of time.

Nasdaq chart

On the tech heavy Nasdaq, you can see that the levels attained in the Internet bubble of 2000 may not be seen again for a generation.

That is the Stock Market Bull for Today.



October 6, 2009

CTCH Internet pumping popped the stock. While this is a good company, this is an opportunity to SELL. Then put it on the list for a few weeks from now. These folks are the leaders in anti spam software.

The trend is your friend Aren't you glad you listened and went LONG.

That is the Stock Market Bull for Today


October 5, 2009

go long. the trend is your friend. it has not changed. We just got our correction, back to the baseline.



The charts returned to baseline. There was about a 6 % correction.
The PC index spiked, as did the Vix. The AD line is corrected, and the
bullish indices also corrected. While a correction occurred, the upward
trend did not change.


Economic indicators are becoming less negative in general. IOW, the slope of the decline is bottoming.



Now, as noted, we do not have a long way to go up. And in general,
this is now a stock pickers market.


That is the Stock Market Bull for Today



September 28, 2009

There will NOT be seroiusly negative catalysts this week. So, it is time, ONCE AGAIN, to buy on the DIP. I would say, Tuesday sometime. In general, it is at another one or 2% on the S&P. If you set some limit orders for a SMALL discount to current prices, and buy good companies, like Goog, AAPL, that would be a good idea.

At SOME POINT, we will get a true retest. That will not be occuring this week. Buying on the dip with this trend is ALMOST always a good thing to do. Now, you ALSO have to watch the value of your individual company. If it trades at a PEG over 2 you are not going anywhere. Also, the market overall is highly valued. When you hear folks say that they are not paying attention to PEs because of this and that, they are getting it wrong. The forward PE does not give the market much room to grow.

I sailed with this Psych guy a few years ago. He asked me why his pharmaceutical stocks stopped moving. Their PEG was about 2.2 or higher, and holding, and so on.

Cnn Article

That is the Stock Market Bull for today.

September 24, 2009


Keep in mind, there is NO change in the trend, nor are their technical
sell signals. However, the charts all went off the top of the Bollinger
bands ( 2 SD from the mean), the Bullish indices went OVER 90% and the
market valuation is too rich.

Now, from
61.8 the move is OFTEN to the 38.2 % point, and NOT the 50%. So we will
have to see. IF it is the first one, we will go to 920 before going UP
again. that is a good sized move.

I would not bet against that notion. I would bet on 1000 for sure, and start buying when we get to the high 900s or so.

If we go to the bottom Bollinger it will be
1000.
In general, watching for a change in the trend is a good idea.

That is the Stock Market Bull for Today.


September 23, 2009

I was reviewing things today and noticed the following.

1. If you reviewed the previous posts, way back there, the decline was predicted in March of 2007 when the Yield curve inverted. (Granted, only a couple saw the disaster. ) ( I had been ALSO documenting the market on another web site called Marketocracy, see the thread of this name on that web site. )

2. Interestingly, the Market DID NOT move UNTIL the Recession was UPON the market. The ptbs called the recession for the fourth quarter 2007 and the market peaked in October 2007.

3. The LATEST chart shows a nice steady recovery, with some backing and filling.

S&P Chart

4. What is the forward PE for the S&P? It is 17.68. So there is NOT a lot of room to go on the top side. The current PE is 27. This is according to the S&P itself.

S&P Earnings Estimates. Download numbers where it says click here

5. If the earnings as noted by the S&P continue to improve, the market will remain in a range. If the double dip comes, AS EXPECTED, then it will be the time to sell. In general, based on the S&P projections, the S&P will trade sideways for some time to come. I would be on the look out for a correction when it seems like TOO MUCH OPTIMISM is in the market. We are getting close to that. Of course, you could say that the current PE is signaling an imminent correction. Looking out the window, there is a bit more momentum.

6. The technical indicators are still pointing UP. There is a TON of stimulus in the market. This much stimulus is unprecedented. The Question is, what happens next. Personally, I am seeing INFLATION. The numbers reported to the government are saying that prices have come down. I realize that there are conflicting statements made here.

7. This post is IN LINE with the last post. 1082 is PROBABLY the time to trim. The fundamentals AND the technicals will be speaking with one voice at that point. 1082 is JUST around the corner.

8. I trimmed today.


That is the Stock Market Bull for Today.



September 18, 2009

1082, that would mark a 62.5% retracement of the previous move DOWN. So, you can EXPECT a correction of about 10% when we get to 1082. I expect that it will only be 7 or 8 percent.

That is the Stock Market Bull for Today.


September 16, 2009

The momentum is continuing unabated. Next stop 1100. 1065 was not a barrier as some predicted.

That is the Stock Market Bull for Today.


September 14, 2009

So far so good. Buying ARSD on that dip was a very good idea. It got down to the high 2's, and is now 3.58. If you take the last two quarters of earnings, and project forward and do the math, you get a PE of 6. The negative earnings last year ensued when the company got on the wrong side of a hedge. In addition to that data, the company will have cash flow from the mining operation in late 2010.

Even considering a double dip recession, this stock is a buy. Now, it was a serious buy when folks bid it down, and I hope that you got some then. Traditionally, this stock trades in the mid teens, like it's competitors. As with any stock, you have to follow it closely, monitoring general issues, the revenue and other numbers closely. Along those lines, the mining operation issue seems to be solved.

The Market in general continues on a BULL RUN. While the outlook for next year is NOT good, it is certainly NOT time to sell. There is NO indicator that I follow that is telling me to sell. Now, sentiment is getting a little too high, but it is not at the level that would make someone sell.

That is the Stock Market Bull for Today.



September 1, 2009

http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=LN_cpsbref3

The first graph is the last ten years. While it is not yet confirmed, the unemployment rate appears to have peaked. More data is needed, and I am short on time, but the graph speaks for itself.

http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/graphics/LNS14000000_427827_1251805005793.gif

This graph is for the same data going back to 1948. ( This web page does not go further. ) It is pretty clear that once you get the initial peak, the worst is over for some time. Of course, there is NOTHING that says we will avoid the 70's. However, it is clear that you do get time to recover between spikes in unemployment.

Of note, so far we have NOT reached the unemployment peak of the recession of the early 80's.

Now, if the US Govt had not bought much of the larger banks and what not, then well, things would have gone to heck in a hand basket and so on. Also, since we have studied the past, and appear to have learned from it, unemployement could easily be peaking NOW.

There are the ARM resets that will peak in 2011. That is a certainty to cause trouble. Also, they will PROBABLY need to extend the Housing stimulus, and what not.  That will keep things stable until we get to the resets.

That is the Stock Market Bull for Today.

July 28, 2009

The Point and Figure chart linked below is pointing ever higher. Numbers continue to come in better than expected. However, in almost every case, the numbers are good because the companies are cutting costs. The summer rally continues.

That is the Stock Market Bull for Today.

July 23, 2009

S&P point and figure chart

There was a true break out from the previous interim high today. The chart is now predicting 1190. In general, the chart predictions have been higher than the actual highs, and lower than the actual lows.

That is the Stock Market Bull for Today.

July 17, 2009

The selling is over. The chart is now predicting 1075. Earnings are coming in better than expected.

That is the Stock Market Bull for Today.

July 7, 2009

The market rolled over today. The point and figure chart is now predicting 825. The numbers noted on June 26 still prevail. Basically, we have been going sideways since April. The earnings do NOT support 900, or 800 for that matter. We are in for a shellacking. The inverse ETFs would be good picks. You could go short, or stay in cash. Just about any stock that tracks the market will be selling off.

That is the Stock Market Bull for Today. 


July 3, 2009

Yesterday, on the unemployment news, there was a big sell off. Well, that is how the talking heads explained it. The real news is this. The rate of increase of the unemployment rate took it's first break. We will see how things unfold, but this is a piece of good news, and not bad. In general, while there is a bit of upside to the market ( 10% ) there is more downside. Cash is still king.

That is the Stock Market Bull for Today.


June 30, 2009

The point and figure charts have changed, and are pointing upwards, to about 1000 on the S&P. I would not want you to miss that move.

That is the Stock Market Bull for Today

June 26, 2009

It has been too long since the last update. Looking back, the Oct message was right on. You would have to say that was a no brainer. A few days later the Vix peaked at 89, and the market hit an interim low of 741. In March of 2009, the 666 was the low. There is NOT much support for that low, long term. There is a severe risk that the retest will NOT hold.

At the moment, the market is at 918, after peaking at 956. We are overdue for a correction, and so 764 is 20% of 956. There is no support there. 666 will get retested. I would say that it is 60-40 that the retest will not hold. There is support at 450 or so. I have no idea when the retest will happen. It could be months. The path to a correction could take almost as long, we will have to see. However, the bias is most definitely down.


OPERATING AS REPORTED OPERATING OPERATING AS REPORTED OPERATING
QUARTER EARNINGS EARNINGS EARNINGS EARNINGS EARNINGS EARNINGS
END PRICE PER SHR PER SHR PER SHR P/E P/E P/E
(ests are (ests are (ests are (ests are (ests are (ests are
bottom up) top down) top down) bottom up) top down) top down)
ESTIMATES ( estimated P/Es use current price)
12/31/2010 $20.87 $7.81 $11.77 11.07 23.89 18.43
09/30/2010 $19.83 $8.56 $11.26 11.72 24.39 18.61
06/30/2010 $18.55 $9.30 $11.49 12.43 25.19 18.48
03/30/2010 $16.95 $9.64 $11.26 13.33 27.36 18.74
12/31/2009 $16.64 $7.09 $11.33 14.25 29.59 18.99
09/30/2009 $15.71 $7.46 $11.57 19.82 -460.96 25.57
06/30/2009 $13.96 $6.64 $10.85 19.75 1917.17 22.57
03/31/2009 797.87 $12.89 $7.32 $10.66 18.43 126.66 30.57
17.43 119.80 18.32 (3/09 P/E if based on 3/09 price)

The above is data from S&P. In times like these, the market does not turn until the PE goes low, lower than 10. The S&P is not predicting that for 2009. So the actual bottom will come in 2010.

Cash is king. There is no where to hide. Gold double topped on June 1st.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld

The stocks I mentioned in my last post are around and worthy of holding for the reasons stated. However, No new cash should go to stocks. If you are so inclined, go short.

That is the Stock Market Bull for Today

October 18th, 2008

The economy is a mess. The market is about to tumble. It is best to be short or in cash. With the VIX at 70 for several days, we are living in interesting times. There is ABOUT to be a crescendo sell off. After that day, I expect to be in 70% cash and 30% long. I would look at buying in small increments over the next few weeks to days.

In general I would follow Buffett and Cramer in these difficult times. Their portfolios have held up pretty well, despite the correction. I would bring three stocks to your attention. One is ARSD. They are a small and growing petrochemical and mining company selling at a PE of 10. It should really be up at 18. In addition, they are growing, and their cost of goods will be coming down with the cost of oil. In 2010, their mining operation in Saudi Arabia will come on line. This one is a value and growth play.

Next is UFFC. George Nadaff or Boston Market fame, is rolling out a new restaurant chain. Need I say more. They only have nine restaurants, but George has NOT missed at all. The stock is a penny stock at this point. At .41 cents you are buying George Nadaff. It is certainly worth a small fling. This one is just speculative, given the price and the number of restaurants. ALL reports about this company are good however. I have been following this for some time.

Next is DSCI. The ancient Egyptians knew that honey helped to heal wounds. Really. This company is marketing Medi Honey bandages. They are increasing in revenue at 60%. The stock should not be a penny stock, but it is. At .60 cents it is definitely something that you should consider for a tiny portion of a position.

That is the Stock Market Bull for Today.


Sept 20, 2008

With the Lehman brothers bankruptcy, the entire banking system froze, in a day. Whatever was happening in the economy is much worse. No credit is available. The market is a dangerous place to be.

That is the Stock Market Bull for Today.


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